Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 October 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 23 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through most of 24
October. Active periods and isolated minor storm conditions are
likely to occur as a coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a
geoeffective position later in the day. Activity is expected to
increase to unsettled to active levels with possible minor storm
periods through the rest of the forecast period (25 and 26 October).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 067 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 010/015-015/020-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
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