Viewing archive of Monday, 1 October 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 01 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 02 October. On 03
October, activity is expected to increase to quiet to active levels
due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. There will also
be a chance for brief minor storm periods at high latitudes.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 04
October as the high-speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 068 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 068/068/067 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 007/010-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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