Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 October 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 02 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on 03 October as a
recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. Minor
storm periods are also possible at high latitudes. On 04 October,
activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled conditions.
Mostly quiet levels are expected on 05 October.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 066 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 012/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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