Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 October 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 03 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity continued at very low levels. The
visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The increase in
activity corresponds to a coronal hole high speed stream. Real-time
solar wind data showed speed gradually increasing over the period to
a maximum of approximately 600 km/s at 03/1555Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 October).
Minor storm periods may occur at high latitudes. Activity on days
two and three (05 and 06 October) should decline to mostly quiet
levels.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 067 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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