Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 September 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Sep 04 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A single low-level
B-class flare was observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 05 September. Expect quiet to active
conditions, with isolated minor storm periods possible at high
latitudes, on 06 September due to a recurrent coronal hole. Mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return on 07
September.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 068 Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 04 Sep 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 005/005-010/015-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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