Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 August 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 08 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 966 (S06E07)
developed in size and complexity, but produced only a B-class flare.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains elevated at approximately 500 km/s due to a geoeffective
coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 09 August. Expect unsettled to
active conditions, with isolated minor to major storm periods, on 10
August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
Conditions should become quiet to unsettled on 11 August as the
coronal hole moves out of a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug to 11 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 069 Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 023/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 007/010-015/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug to 11 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
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