Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 July 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jul 12 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant flares
occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region
963 (S05E15).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at
ACE has steadily declined to around 485 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (13-15
July). Isolated active periods are possible on 14-15 July due to a
recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 077 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 014/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 005/008-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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