Viewing archive of Friday, 13 July 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jul 13 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant flares
occurred during the past 24 hours. New Region 964 (N04W30) is
classified as a beta spot group. Region 963 (S06E01) continues to
slowly decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region
963 or 964.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for isolated active
periods on 14-15 July due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 078 Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 010/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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