Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 July 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jul 14 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant flares
occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active conditions due to a
recurrent coronal hole. Solar wind speed at ACE reached a peak of
561 km/s at 14/2121Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 15 July. Quiet conditions are
expected on 16-17 July.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 076 Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 006/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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