Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 June 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 17 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 18 June. Conditions will range
from unsettled to minor storm levels on 19-20 June as a recurrent
coronal hole becomes geoeffective. There is a chance for isolated
major storm periods at high latitudes on 20 June due to the coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 067 Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 005/005-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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