Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 July 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jul 15 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant activity
has been observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind speed
decreased throughout the day to approximately 480 km/s at 15/2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (16 - 18
July).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 075 Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 012/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 012/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 005/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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