Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 August 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 07 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 966 (S06E21)
produced a B1 flare at 06/2248Z. This region has simplified and is
now classified as an H-type alpha sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm conditions
due to a coronal high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 8 August as the coronal hole
moves out of a geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 9 August. Conditions are expected to
increase to unsettled to active, with isolated minor storm periods
on 10 August. Isolated major storm periods are also possible at
high latitudes on 10 August, in response to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 069 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/010-007/010-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
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