Viewing archive of Monday, 6 August 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 06 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was low. Two C-class flares were
produced by Region 966 (S06E34), a C1/Sf at 0913Z and a C1/Sf at
1537Z. The event at 0913Z was accompanied by a type II radio sweep.
Region 966 has shown modest growth during the past 24 hours and is
now a small, D-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the period
through 06/1500Z. Since then activity has increased to unsettled to
active levels. The increase is being driven by the onset of a high
speed stream from a coronal hole, as evidenced by steadily rising
solar wind speeds.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods at high latitudes for the next 24 hours (07 August) as the
current disturbance continues. Conditions should decline to mostly
unsettled by the 2nd day (08 August) and should be predominantly
quiet by day 3 (09 August).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 070 Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 015/020-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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