Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 July 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jul 10 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 963 (S06E40) produced
12 C-class flares, the largest of which was a C8.2/Sf at 10/1240Z. The
region grew rapidly, approximately doubling in size in the past 24
hours. It is now an E-class, 15 spot region with a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low to moderate, with a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare
from Region 963.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind data indicate the onset
of a corotating interaction region beginning approximately 10/1400Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on days
one and two (11-12 July) due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
Quiet conditions are anticipated to return on day three (13 July).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 078 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 015/015-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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