Viewing archive of Monday, 9 July 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jul 09 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 963 (S07E54) has
produced two C-class flares and numerous B-class flares. Region 963
grew slowly in size and complexity during the past 24 hours and is
now classified as a D-type group with 12 spots and a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region
963.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled with a chance for active periods late
on day one (10 Jun) continuing through day two (11 Jun) in response
to a recurrent coronal hole. Conditions should decline to quiet to
unsettled on day three (12 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 077 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 008/010-015/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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