Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 June 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 12 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 960 (S05W71) continues to decay and is now classified as a magnetic alpha sunspot group. It produced a B3 flare at 12/1931Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There remains a chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 960.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 13 June. Expect quiet to active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods possible at high latitudes, on 14-15 June as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jun 070
  Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        12 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jun  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  005/005-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%10%05%

All times in UTC

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