Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 May 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 16 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 956 (N02E35) produced a C2/Sf flare at 16/1741Z along with multiple B-class flares during the past 24 hours. This region continues to show rapid growth in sunspot area and is now magnetically classified a Dkc beta-gamma-delta sunspot group. Region 955 (S07W77) continues to decay and is currently an Axx alpha sunspot group. New Region 957 (S04W34) was numbered today and is depicting several umbra.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares are possible due to the magnetic complexities of Region 956.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels on 17 and 18 May. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on 19 May. Unsettled to active conditions are expected with isolated minor storm periods possible, as the coronal hole becomes favorably positioned.
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
Class M35%35%40%
Class X10%10%15%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 May 077
  Predicted   17 May-19 May  080/075/075
  90 Day Mean        16 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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