Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 April 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Apr 19 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours, and the visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active for the next three days
(20-22 April). Isolated minor storm conditions are possible at
high latitudes on 20 April due to a favorably positioned coronal
hole.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 068 Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 015/015-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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