Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 May 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 15 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 956 (N02E48) continues to show rapid development in sunspot area and magnetic complexity. This region produced a C1/Sf flare at 15/1537Z and is magnetically classified as a Dso beta-gamma sunspot group. Region 955 (S07W58) underwent slight decay over the past 24 hours. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Further development of Region 956 could possibly lead to isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions possible throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
Class M20%20%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 May 077
  Predicted   16 May-18 May  080/082/083
  90 Day Mean        15 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  001/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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