Viewing archive of Monday, 14 May 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 14 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Newly numbered
Region 956 (N02E61) produced several low level B-class flares during
the period. This region rapidly grew into a Cao beta magnetic
sunspot group. Region 955 (S09W45) underwent little change during
the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. Emerging Region 956 may further develop this
period to produce isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled
conditions possible throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 073 Predicted 15 May-17 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 14 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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