Viewing archive of Monday, 14 May 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 14 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Newly numbered Region 956 (N02E61) produced several low level B-class flares during the period. This region rapidly grew into a Cao beta magnetic sunspot group. Region 955 (S09W45) underwent little change during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. Emerging Region 956 may further develop this period to produce isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions possible throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 May 073
  Predicted   15 May-17 May  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        14 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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