Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 July 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jul 08 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 963 (S07E66) has
produced three C-class flares and numerous B-class flares. The
region is currently a moderate size D-type sunspot group with a
simple beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region
963.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet from day one (9 July) through most of day
two (10 July). Late on day two, and continuing through day three
(11 July), geomagnetic activity is expected to become unsettled with
possible active periods in response to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 075 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 005/005-008/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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