Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 August 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 04 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant flares
were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 5 August. Expect quiet to unsettled
conditions on 6 August as a recurrent coronal hole becomes
geoeffective late in the day. Quiet to active conditions are
expected on 7 August.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 069 Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 005/005-008/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
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