Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 September 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Sep 02 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were only three,
low-level B-class flares during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active with some
isolated minor storm periods. The increase in activity corresponds
to a high speed solar wind stream associated with a favorably
positioned coronal hole. Real-time solar wind speeds increased up to
600-650 km/s early in the period, and remained at that level
throughout the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods during
the next 24 hours (03 September) as the current solar wind stream
persists. Conditions should decline to predominantly quiet for the
second and third days (04-05 September).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 069 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 010/015-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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