Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 September 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Sep 01 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. New Region 970 (S06W07) was assigned today
and is a small, C-type sunspot group. A filament eruption on the
west limb was observed beginning at about 31/2000Z in Stereo-A EUVI
images and was later seen as a limb CME in the Stereo-A COR1 and
COR2 coronagraphs just after 01/0000Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was an
isolated active period from 0900-1200Z. Real-time solar wind
measurements at the ACE spacecraft show a slow increase in speed
over the last 24 hours, from initial values around 420 km/s to about
520 km/s by forecast issue time. The increase is consistent with a
high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels from 31/2100-31/2115 but was dropped below 1000 PFU for the
remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (02
September) as the high speed solar wind stream is expected to
continue. Conditions should subside to mostly unsettled for the
second day (03 September), and should be quiet to unsettled by the
third day (04 September).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 071 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 071/070/070 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 013/020-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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