Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 September 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Sep 29 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. Region 971 (N03W06) is a small C-type sunspot group and was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels from the beginning of the period through 29/1200Z, and was mostly unsettled thereafter. Real-time solar wind observations at ACE show that the activity was due to the ongoing influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the first day (30 September) with a chance for isolated active periods. Activity should decline to quiet to unsettled for the second and third days (01-02 October).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Sep 068
  Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct  068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        29 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  015/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Sep  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  010/015-007/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

All times in UTC

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