Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 September 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Sep 30 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours.
Unsettled to active conditions predominated from the start of the
day through 1200Z due to continued effects of a high speed stream.
However, a clear downward trend in solar wind speed began at about
0800Z and geomagnetic conditions were quiet from 1200Z through the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (01-02
October), and partway through the third day (03 October). However,
an increase to unsettled to active levels is expected around mid-day
on 03 October as a small coronal hole will be rotating into
geoeffective position at that time.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 065 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 024/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 007/008-007/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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