Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 October 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 27 2104 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active conditions. Real-time
solar wind speeds have shown a decline from last reporting period at
670 km/s. Speeds are now averaging around 540 km/s with Bz
continuing to range from +/- 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions
for 28-30 October.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 067 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 008/010-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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