Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 July 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jul 11 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 963 (S06E28) produced a
C1 flare at 10/2246Z, as well as several B-class flares during the
past 24 hours. This region has decayed in both area and complexity
and is now classified as a beta magnetic spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region
963.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions due
to the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE
reached a peak of 602 km/s at 11/0726Z and again at 11/1724Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to
be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (12-14 June). There
is a slight chance for isolated active periods early on day one (12
June) due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 079 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 019/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 008/015-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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