Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 June 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 14 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 960 has rotated around the west limb. The visible solar disk is now spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a single period of minor storming at mid latitudes as the solar wind speed increased to about 550 km/s due to a recurrent coronal hole rotating into geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm periods on 15 June due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 16 - 17 June.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jun 069
  Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        14 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jun  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

All times in UTC

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