Viewing archive of Friday, 18 May 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 18 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 956 (N03E07) continues to display a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, but has not produced any flares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed increased to approximately 600 km/s during the past 12 hours, indicating the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm periods on 19 May due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 20 - 21 May.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 May 076
  Predicted   19 May-21 May  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        18 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 May  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  010/020-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%25%15%
Minor storm25%15%05%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%

All times in UTC

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