Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 May 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 16 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 956
(N02E35) produced a C2/Sf flare at 16/1741Z along with multiple
B-class flares during the past 24 hours. This region continues to
show rapid growth in sunspot area and is now magnetically classified
a Dkc beta-gamma-delta sunspot group. Region 955 (S07W77) continues
to decay and is currently an Axx alpha sunspot group. New Region
957 (S04W34) was numbered today and is depicting several umbra.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares are possible due to
the magnetic complexities of Region 956.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels on 17 and 18 May. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become
geoeffective on 19 May. Unsettled to active conditions are expected
with isolated minor storm periods possible, as the coronal hole
becomes favorably positioned.
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 077 Predicted 17 May-19 May 080/075/075 90 Day Mean 16 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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