Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 April 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Apr 29 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 953 (S10E23) has
shown a slight decrease in trailing spots bordering the main spot.
Also, the beginnings of a possible separation of penumbral area on
the eastern side of the main spot was noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for an M-flare from Region 953.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions.
Increased activity was due to the continued influence of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible on 30 April. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels by 01 and 02 May.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 085 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 020/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 010/013-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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