Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 April 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Apr 28 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 953 (S10E36) has
not changed much in area and has only managed to produce several
B-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for an M-class flare from Region 953.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions as a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream continues to be
geoeffective. Solar wind speeds at ACE are enhanced around 640 km/s.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions on 29 April.
Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on 30 April. Conditions are
expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels by 01 May.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Apr 085 Predicted 29 Apr-01 May 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 28 Apr 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr 010/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr 020/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 015/015-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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