Viewing archive of Monday, 30 April 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Apr 30 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There was slight decay in
penumbral area on the trailing edge of Region 953 (S10E09), however,
the spot group is maintaining a beta gamma delta magnetic
classification. New Region 954 (S05E29) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for an M-flare from Region 953.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions.
Activity was due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high
speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from
approximately 680 km/s to 570 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the forecast period (01 - 03
May).
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 087 Predicted 01 May-03 May 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 016/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 012/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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