Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 May 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 01 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Only low level B-class
flares were observed. Region 953 (S12W04) has decreased in area to
around 440 millionths and has weakened to a beta-gamma magnetic
class.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-flare from Region 953.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. An isolated active
period was observed at the Boulder Magnetometer between 01/0600 -
0900 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the forecast period (02 - 04 May).
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 086 Predicted 02 May-04 May 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 01 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 013/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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