Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 February 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 15 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. An
isolated minor storm period was observed at middle latitudes between
15/0300 - 0600 UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE continues to be elevated
around 620 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
are possible on 16 February.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 074 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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