Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 February 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 14 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions. An
isolated minor storm period was observed between 13/2100 - 2400 UTC.
Activity was due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high
speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around
660 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 15 February. Conditions are
expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 16 and 17
February.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 073 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 013/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 008/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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