Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 January 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 18 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active as a coronal hole high speed stream continues to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated active periods possible on 19 January. On 20 and 21 January, conditions are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jan 077
  Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        18 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  015/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  010/012-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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