Viewing archive of Friday, 19 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 19 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A full halo CME was first
observed in LASCO imagery at 19/0430 UTC with an approximate plane
of sky speed of 620 km/s. The CME was most likely a backside event
and not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE
remains elevated around 660 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on 20 January. On 21 and 22 January, quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 076 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 009/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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