Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 20 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 939 (S03W17)
was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with isolated C-flare activity possible from Region 939.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE
has decreased from approximately 650 km/s to 580 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 079 Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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