Viewing archive of Friday, 16 February 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 16 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity reached low levels. A C1.7 flare
occurred at 16/0156 UTC, which likely originated from newly numbered
Region 942 (S13E69).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 942.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at ACE decreased
from approximately 640 km/s to 520 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 075 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 015/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 26% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 04% | 01% |
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