Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 October 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 25 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 917
(S05W86) continues to decay as it rotates off the west limb. No
other spotted regions are visible on the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels. An isolated
active period was observed at middle latitudes between 25/0600 and
0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 26 and 27 October. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become
geoeffective on 28 October. Active to minor storm conditions can be
expected with the onset of the coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 075 Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 004/005-010/010-018/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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