Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 21 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A CME was observed in
LASCO imagery at 21/0554 UTC from behind the east limb. This event
is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 22 November. On 23 and 24 November, active to
minor storm periods are possible, as a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 078 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 070/070/075 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 001/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 003/005-008/010-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 20% |
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