Viewing archive of Monday, 18 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 18 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
disk is void of sunspots. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 19 December. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to become
geoeffective on 20 December with active to minor storm conditions
likely to result and persist through the remainder of the forecast
period. Brief isolated major storm periods may occur on 21
December.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 075 Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 18 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 004/005-010/020-015/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 20% |
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