Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 14 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 938
(N02E48) produced several minor B-class flares today and is the only
spotted region currently on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 15 January. Active
to minor storm conditions are possible on 16 and 17 January due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 082 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 001/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 006/010-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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