Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 January 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 13 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 938 (N02E61) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 14 January. On 15 January, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected. On 16 January, a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective causing active to minor storm conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jan 081
  Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        13 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  005/005-008/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%25%
Minor storm01%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%30%
Minor storm01%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%15%

All times in UTC

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