Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 October 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 26 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. There were no
spotted regions on the visible disk during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 27 October. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become
geoeffective on 28 October. Active to minor storm conditions can be
expected with the onset of the coronal hole. A return to quiet to
unsettled levels is expected on 29 October.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 072 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 010/010-018/020-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 45% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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