Viewing archive of Friday, 29 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 29 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity remains at very low levels. New Region
915 (S06W46) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Isolated
minor storm conditions are possible on 30 September and 01 October
due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected to return on 02 October as the
coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 077 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 015/020-015/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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