Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 28 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. An
eruptive prominence was observed at S31 on the west limb during the
middle of the period. Three new regions were numbered today,
Regions 912 (N06E65), 913 (S18E68), and 914 (S07E75).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 29 September. Active
to minor storm conditions are expected to begin late in the period
on 30 September due to a recurrent coronal hole. The elevated field
conditions should persist into 01 October.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 073 Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 075/075/080 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 006/008-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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