Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 24 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 905 (S08E33) is the
only sunspot group on the visible disk, and maintains a reversed
polarity magnetic configuration. This region produced no flare
activity this period; however, regular brightness fluctuations with
low B-class x-ray enhancements were observed. No other activity of
note occurred this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 905.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 25 and 26 August. A recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position on 27 August and produce occasional active
periods.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 078 Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 005/005-005/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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